Tuesday, July 8, 2008

About the Chevy Volt

There has been a great deal of critism lately leveled at the Chevy Volt. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal that was very harsh. At first glance much of the critism seem reasonable.

  • People really want big cars.
  • Electricity can be more poluting than gas.
  • The generator will not be as effecient as promised.
  • The Volt will be too expensive

However, the facts on the ground are rapidly changing. Theories on pricing and economy are frequently based on current fuel cost, current emissions and current thinking.

SUV sales are plumetting. This is not just a recent change, Hybrids have been doing well, and many consumers are waiting for the car they ‘want’ to be released as a Hybrid. I personally don’t see this as an endorsement of ‘Hybrids’ as much as an endorsement for change.

Technology is also changing, with $4 gas, industry and investors are all scrambling for a piece of the alternative energy ‘pie’. Better batteries, motor, generators are all on the horizon. How much better remains to be seen. Where we end up is a guessing game.

The primary benefit of the ‘Volt’ is that it doesn’t really care where the electricity comes from. It can come from an outlet (coal or nuclear), it can come from a generator (Gas, Diesel, Ethanol, Vegetable oil, hydrogen). It could come from the sun or a lightning rod if you’re lucky. While the first version of the Volt is planned to be gas, it just a matter of changing out the generator to convert to newer technologies. Current Hybrids are well tuned machines relying on the engine for the heavy lifting; they can’t be easily unplugged and ‘swapped’.
As battery technology increases, you will be able to unplug your old batteries and replace them with newer, lighter, cheaper alternatives.

It is easy dismiss the idea of the onboard generator as being ‘inefficient’. It has been suggest that an electric car on a generator could get as low as 15 mile to the gallon. While, I think that is and unreasonably low estimate (my research in the subject suggests that 20 miles would be the worst case scenario for an extremely inefficient system for a car of the Volts weight in heavy driving), I think creating a car that hit 40 miles per gallon, would be pretty darn easy.

Still the efficiency is not really the point of the generator. The generator removes the ‘compromise’ factor of the electric car. Consumers worry about not being able to drive their car, because it’s out of charge. They won’t buy a car that they are afraid will strand them. The generator serves as a ‘safety’ net. It also allows them to plan the yearly trip to grandmas knowing that their family car will get them there quickly and reliably.

To me the Volt seems to be shaping up into a great ‘no compromise’ product that will well serve the customers who can afford it. I also believe, it could turn into a profitable and growing platform for a fleet of future low cost, efficient ‘no compromise’ cars and trucks.

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